The Prospect of American Strikes on Iran: Strategic Calculus, Risks, and Regional Consequences
The prospect of American military strikes on Iran rarely emerges in a vacuum. It is usually the product of converging pressures, internal repression, regional power plays, and the credibility of deterrence. Today’s moment fits that pattern with uncomfortable precision. As Iran reels from one of the bloodiest crackdowns in its recent history, the United States once again faces a familiar but perilous question: whether force can reshape Iranian behavior, or whether it would instead accelerate a wider confrontation across the Middle East. Even Ali Khamenei , Iran’s long-standing supreme leader, has been compelled to acknowledge the scale of the violence. Thousands have reportedly been killed during the regime’s suppression of protests, an admission that underscores the severity of the internal crisis. While the demonstrations have been temporarily crushed through fear and force, the unrest has not removed the external pressures facing Tehran. On the contrary, it has sharpened them....